Methodology

How we track the promises. Spoiler: it's not rocket science.
Well, sometimes it literally is.

What counts as a prediction?

A public statement made by Elon Musk that includes a specific, verifiable claim with a timeline or measurable outcome. We track statements from:

— Tweets / X posts (his natural habitat)
— Earnings calls and investor presentations
— Conference talks and interviews
— Official company announcements

Prediction statuses

Success — The prediction came true within the stated timeframe (yes, it happens).

Failed — The deadline has passed and the prediction did not come true. Welcome to the Graveyard.

Late Success — It eventually happened, but well after the promised date. Classic Elon Time.

Pending — The deadline hasn't passed yet. Hope springs eternal.

Partial — Partially delivered. The “well, technically...” category.

How we calculate the accuracy rate

The accuracy gauge on the homepage is calculated from all resolved predictions (excluding pending ones):

accuracy = (success + partial * 0.5) / total_resolved * 100

Late successes count as successes (he got there eventually). Partial deliveries count as half. Pending predictions are excluded until their deadline passes.

Source verification

Every prediction includes a link to the original source (tweet, article, video). We rely on archived sources when originals are deleted — which, given Elon's tweeting habits, happens more often than you'd think. Community members can submit corrections via the error reporting system on each prediction page.

The Elon Time multiplier

Our Elon Time Converter uses a multiplier derived from historical data. We calculate the average ratio between promised delivery dates and actual delivery dates across all late-success predictions. The current multiplier is updated as new predictions are resolved.

Disclaimer

MuskOmeter is a satirical project for entertainment purposes. We strive for factual accuracy in tracking predictions, but the commentary is meant to be humorous, not malicious. We are not affiliated with Elon Musk or any of his companies. If you spot an error, please use the report button on the prediction page.